REINSTATING PASSENGER RAIL: CALGARY- EDMONTON CORRIDOR Comparative Insights from Denver’s Union & Eastlake Station

 

Minette Monteros-Pollice

Antonio Collins

Susan Miller

 

Capella University

September 11, 2025

 

Overview of Denver's Union Station and Eastlake StationDenver Union Station, located in the heart of the LoDo (Lower Downtown) and Union Station neighborhoods, serves as a major multimodal transit hub for light rail, commuter rail, buses, and Amtrak.

 

Redevelopment began in earnest after the 2004 FasTracks voter-approved transit expansion plan, transforming a derelict rail yard into a vibrant mixed-use district. The project, completed in phases through 2014, involved $500 million in public investment and spurred over $3.5 billion in private development, including offices, residences, hotels, and retail. This has positioned Union Station as a catalyst for urban revitalization in central Denver. Eastlake Station (Eastlake/124th), in the suburban Eastlake neighborhood of Thornton, is the northern terminus of the N Line commuter rail, which opened on September 21, 2020, as part of FasTracks.

 

The station features a park-and-ride lot and connects northern suburbs to Union Station, covering 13 miles through Commerce City, Northglenn, and Thornton. Unlike Union Station, Eastlake is in a lower-density, residential-suburban area with limited prior development around the station site, which was formerly rural or industrial (e.g., near a historic grain elevator).

 

The N Line's arrival has introduced new transit access but has not yet driven extensive transit-oriented development (TOD).Both stations are part of RTD's FasTracks program, which has broadly boosted property values near transit corridors by 6-7% on average for homes within a quarter-mile of stations, based on cross-studies of similar U.S. rail projects. However, impacts vary by location: central urban hubs like Union Station see amplified gains due to density and amenities, while suburban stations like Eastlake experience more modest, emerging effects. Since 2000, metro Denver's overall housing market has appreciated significantly (e.g., citywide median home values rose from around $150,000 in 2000 to over $550,000 in 2025), but transit proximity has accelerated this in station-adjacent areas. 

 

Historical Property Value Trends Since 2000

 

Property values near both stations have increased substantially since 2000, driven by Denver's population growth, economic boom, and FasTracks investments. However, Union Station's area has seen explosive growth due to its central location and redevelopment, while Eastlake's suburban setting has yielded steadier, more affordable appreciation. Data from sources like Neighborhood Scout, Redfin, and Zillow indicate the following trends (adjusted for inflation where noted; figures are medians for single-family homes and condos unless specified): 

 

Year/Period

 

2000

~$250,000 (pre-redevelopment baseline; LoDo was emerging but undervalued) - Union Station/LoDo Neighborhood (Denver)

~$150,000 (suburban starter homes; area was mostly undeveloped post-1990s growth)

 

Key Take Away - Pre-FasTracks era; Union Station was underused, Eastlake rural. Metro Denver median: ~$160,000.

 

2010

~$400,000 (up 60%; early FasTracks planning boosted investor interest) - Union Station/LoDo Neighborhood (Denver)

~$200,000 (up 33%; housing crash recovery; limited transit)

 

Key Take Away - Recession dip (2008-2010) hit both, but Union Station's urban appeal cushioned losses.

 

2014

~$600,000 (up 50% from 2010; Union Station reopening catalyzed TOD) - Union Station/LoDo Neighborhood (Denver)

~$250,000 (up 25%; N Line construction announced, but no service yet)

 

Key Take Away - Union Station's $3.5B private investment directly inflated values; Eastlake saw anticipation effects.

 

2020

~$900,000 (up 50%; pandemic resilience in urban core) - Union Station/LoDo Neighborhood (Denver)

~$350,000 (up 40%; N Line opens, adding ~5-10% premium near station)

 

Key Take Away - FasTracks completion at Union Station; Eastlake station opening spurred 6-7% transit premium per studies.

 

2025 (Current)

 

$1,144,866 (overall; recent 14.2% biennial increase in Union Station area due to new builds) - Union Station/LoDo Neighborhood (Denver)

$420,000-$501,000 (down 4.9% YoY but up ~180% since 2000; Thornton median $517,632)

 

Key Take Away - Recent market cooling (high rates); Union Station values skewed high by luxury condos/hotels; Eastlake more stable for families.

 

Cumulative Increase Since 2000:

 

Union Station/LoDo: ~358% (from $250K to $1.15M). This outpaces metro Denver's ~250% average, with transit accounting for 20-30% of the premium near stations.

 

Eastlake: ~180-234% (from $150K to $420K-$501K).

 

Recent Changes (2023-2025): Both areas saw a slight dip (-1.6% to -4.8% in medians) due to high interest rates, but Union Station bucked the trend with +14.2% from new construction. Eastlake values dropped 27.6% YoY in some sales but stabilized at $257/sq ft (up 42% YoY), reflecting suburban affordability.

 

Comparative Insights: Factors Driving Differences

 

The disparity in appreciation stems from location, development intensity, and transit integration. Union Station's urban setting amplifies gains, while Eastlake's suburban context moderates them but offers potential for future growth.

 

Redevelopment and TOD Impact:

 

Union Station: The 2014 reopening transformed 19.5 acres into a hub with 1.5M sq ft of mixed-use space, generating $2B annual economic impact. This led to a "halo effect," with property values rising 30-50% post-2014 in LoDo/Union Station. Studies show TOD near central stations like this boosts values by 10-20% more than suburban ones due to walkability, amenities (e.g., The Crawford Hotel, Tattered Cover bookstore), and job access. Since 2000, 68% of new metro Denver offices and 44% of housing have clustered within 0.5 miles of RTD stations, heavily favoring Union Station.

 

Eastlake Station: The 2020 N Line opening added connectivity but minimal immediate TOD; the area remains park-and-ride focused with concerns over parking expansions impacting wildlife/green space. Values rose ~40% from 2010-2020 in anticipation, with a 6-7% premium post-opening for properties within 0.25 miles. However, suburban challenges like lower density limit gains—Eastlake is below average income (67% of U.S. neighborhoods) with higher childhood poverty (73%). Future extensions to Hwy 7 could add 10-15% uplift, but current impact is modest compared to Union Station.

 

Market Dynamics and Appreciation Rates:

 

Union Station/LoDo: High demand from millennials and urban professionals drove 92% above-national median prices. Appreciation accelerated post-2004 FasTracks (e.g., 33% biennial gains pre-2023). Recent data shows resilience, with values up despite citywide drops.

 

Eastlake/Thornton: More affordable (80/100 competitiveness score), with 40% of housing built post-2000. Gains are steady but volatile—e.g., +5% median in 2025 but -0.02% YoY. Transit premium is evident but smaller (5-10%) due to car dependency; N Line reduces commutes to Denver by 30-45 minutes, potentially boosting values 10% long-term.

 

Economic and Social Factors:

 

Union Station: Proximity to jobs (downtown Denver), entertainment, and FasTracks' full build-out (e.g., A Line to airport) creates a multiplier effect. Private investment ($3B+ since 2010) and public-private partnerships (e.g., Continuum Partners) have made it a "cool city" magnet, with 23,000+ millennials influx since 2007.

 

Eastlake: Serves commuters in growing suburbs (Thornton pop. 144K+), but lacks urban amenities. N Line has improved access, but issues like parking safety and wildlife displacement temper enthusiasm. Broader FasTracks has created 15,000 jobs since 2005, indirectly benefiting suburban values through regional growth.

 

Risks and Future Outlook:

 

Both: Cooling market (inventory up 50% in Thornton; vacancies high downtown) due to rates, but FasTracks' long-term vision (full build by 2044) promises sustained premiums. Equitable TOD policies (e.g., 35% affordable housing goal on RTD land) could stabilize values.

 

Union Station: Continued high-end growth, but oversupply risks from new builds.

 

Eastlake: Potential for 15-20% uplift with N Line extension and grain elevator redevelopment, making it a value play for investors.

 

In summary, Union Station has dramatically outperformed Eastlake in property value growth since 2000, thanks to its central redevelopment and TOD synergies, while Eastlake offers solid suburban appreciation with untapped potential from recent rail access. For buyers/investors, Union Station suits premium urban living, while Eastlake appeals for affordability and future upside. Data reflects 2025 market conditions; consult local assessors for parcel-specific values.